Subjective Distributions

Subjective Sampling Distributions and Conservatism 1

When people revise subjective probabilities in light of data, revisions a r e less than the amount prescribed by the normative model, Bayes's theorem. Previous research suggests that this results from the subjects' lack of understanding of the implications of the data; i.e., from inaccurate subjective sampling distributions. This experiment examined the effects on conservatire revisions of trai...

Modeling Population Distributions of Subjective Ratings

Most human figure models used in ergonomic analyses present postural comfort ratings based on joint angles, and present a single comfort score for the whole body or on a joint-by-joint basis. The source data for these ratings is generally derived from laboratory studies that link posture to ratings. Lacking in many of these models is a thorough treatment of the distribution of ratings for the p...

A Comparison of Aggregation Methods of Subjective Probability Distributions By

Efficiently Encoding and Modeling Subjective Probability Distributions for Quantitative Variables

Expert forecasts of quantitative variables in the form of continuous subjective probability distributions are more useful to decision makers than are point estimates or confidence intervals. We present 2 experiments using participants recruited via the Internet aimed at (a) developing methods for estimating and modeling continuous subjective distributions from small numbers of judgments, and (b...

New Distributions for Modeling Subjective Lower and Upper Probabilities

This paper presents an investigation of approaches to modeling lower and upper subjective probabilities. A relatively unexplored approach is introduced, based on the fact that every cumulative distribution function (CDF) with support (0,1) has a “dual” CDF that obeys the conjugacy relation between coherent lower and upper probabilities. A new 2-parameter family of “CDF-Quantile” distributions w...